The announcement this month that the Micronesian contingent of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) would delay their decision to withdraw from the organisation was met with relief throughout the region, particularly in Canberra.

The deferral came after Micronesia’s leaders were reportedly given assurances that current PIF Secretary General and former Cook Islands Prime Minister Henry Puna – who won the Forum’s top job in February 2021 – would step down early, in June this year. Puna’s election over a Micronesian candidate had sparked 12 months of tension in the organisation, with the five Micronesian nations claiming a right to see their candidate elected to the position under a long-held “gentlemen’s agreement” to rotate the job among the regions within the Forum.

While this announcement to “temporarily rescind” the threatened withdrawal appears to have averted a split in the forum for now, it is also clear that the crisis has not yet actually been resolved. The Micronesian leaders’ decision to speak to the media without an official announcement from PIF or Puna was last week labelled “premature and puzzling” by Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown. There is time for negotiations to break down between now and June.

Over the past year, Australia – the Forum’s largest member – has avoided attention as Pacific Island nations took the lead in talks attempting to resolve the split via the Troika Plus Dialogue. But this relative quiet should not be mistaken for a lack of interest or influence on Australia’s part. Indeed, Canberra cast a long shadow over the crisis.